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#maganomics

13 posts8 participants0 posts today

went to #Rednote to see what theyre thinking of the trade war & #tariffs and i saw a version of this video 5x. it basically says that if you think the chinese businesses are gonna eat a 20% #tariff for doing nothing wrong, forget it. they feel like its getting to hard to do business w/ US, so why try
#MAGAnomics

I cannot stress how stupid an economic policy it is to demand that everything be made in your country while simultaneously kicking out all the immigrants we need to have an adequate labor force, not to mention kidnapping doctors and students so fewer people will even want to come here.

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the above post is a study of tariff rates that show for every 3.6% increase, you cant expect .4% of GDP contraction that can last for up to 5yrs. tariffs are a real lag, that math (26%/3.6%x.4) works out to at least a 2.89% GDP contraction or recession. But it will also come with high inflation and unemployment as ppl are laid off and import prices for inputs rise #MAGAnomics

"Using data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth... The impact is persistent and increases with the magnitude of the tariff change. Our baseline econometric model suggests that a one standard deviation increase in the tariff rate (corresponding to a 3.6% points) leads to about a 0.4% decline of output 5yrs later."
#MAGAnomics pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/

PubMed Central (PMC)Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countriesThe empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that ...
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...we are doing this to EVERY industry when you look at 25% tariffs on steel/aluminum, 25% on CN, MEX, EU, China, Latin Amer. thats every industry, every partner is abt to have to adjust on the fly and the natural reaction to raise prices to cover your ass will lead to inflation& unemployment too #MAGAnomics

"[trump] signed an executive order to initiate a review on copper imports after noting he would tariff the metal in an earlier speech before Congress. Such a move would increase dependency on domestic capacity, which is limited to only two major smelters, as the US imports nearly half of its copper. In the meantime, demand from top consumer China remained underpinned by a pickup in manufacturing activity and pledges of wider deficit spending by the government #MAGAnomics tradingeconomics.com/commodity