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Charlie Stross

Combining this (Trump declares Biden admin pardons void) with Trump's admin ignoring judicial orders and I conclude the USA is now in an uncontrolled skid towards dictatorship.

The rule of law is void where it offends Trump.

(Checks calendar: just under 60 days in, events still tracking Hitler's post-election seizure of power in 1933.)

Reminder that the Nazis re-occupied the Rhineland 3 years in. That's probably about the right time scale for the invasion of Canada.
flipboard.com/@abc/news-54f0un

ABC News - Nicholas Kerr · Trump claims Biden pardons for Jan. 6 committee 'void, vacant'By ABC News - Nicholas Kerr

@cstross

There's no check on him. He ignores what he doesn't like. He plays out the clock with appeals. It takes a 2/3 majority in the Senate to impeach - it will never happen - and he would likely contest that.

The idiots that gave him the power of the American presidency ...

@JHB17

Remember what they did with John F. Kennedy. Every problem has a solution. 🤷‍♂️

@cstross

@cstross
In any other country, at this stage the government announces that the constitution has been suspended.

Looks like the US isn't going to waste time actually making the announcement.

@cstross I was assuming Canada's annexation would map to the Anschluss. If it is 3 years in, it means this is running ahead of schedule.

@cstross The rule of law has been deprecated it's the rule of trump now

also known as the reign of supreme leader skibidi hitler

@cstross Since Trump apparently claims (in a late-night social media post, as I recall) that Biden's pardons are "void" based on the use of a specific technology - an autopen - used to sign them, let's apply an "original intent" argument to any pardon Trump grants by declaring them "void and vacant" because he didn't use an 18th century pen to sign them - basically a feather that gets dipped in an inkwell.

@cstross

If this went to court (which it won't) I would quite enjoy the political commentators nicknaming the case Sharpie v. AutoPen.

@cstross

Omfg

We are way past "towards"

Act accordingly.

@cstross I wonder why Iran hasn't started a global GoFundMe page...

@cstross

Uhh, no, thank you very much.

You might see _your neighbours rolling over to become slaves.

You might like drawing parallelograms around German racist thug history, but Canada is Vietnam not Austria.

Only Russia is bigger.
Russia's economy is smaller than 🇨🇦

Canada has loyal allies, Russia has North Korea.

Canada already beat one US invasion. Do not think politeness and decency masks weakness.

"French nuclear attack sub docks in Nova Scotia"

midilibre.fr/2025/03/13/pourqu

midilibre.frPourquoi un sous-marin nucléaire français "Barracuda" a-t-il fait surface au large du Canada juste après les menaces de Trump ?Le sous-marin français FS Tourville a fait escale à Halifax, au Canada, le 10 mars 2025, dans le cadre de sa première traversée atlantique, en testant ses capacités en vue du renouvellement de la flotte sous-marine...

@kevinrns I'm in the UK. I expect we'll beat war with Russia within 2-3 years.

@cstross

Just saying don't make warnings too triumphant, it might fool fools into thinking their half baked dreams of cruelty are workable.

It may get pretty awful, but they aren't winning. If it is going to get awful, its because they want to be defeated.

Democracy, if you can keep it.

@cstross
Re-occupying a part of Germany that was simply, a demilitarized zone. Canada is NOT part of the United States. Invading Canada would be more like the invasion of Austria, where a sovereign nation was overrun by their military with a lot of dirty deeds going on backstage. Then a phony plebiscite where only a handful of the faithful were allowed to vote, not that it would have mattered anyhow.

@Wgere I'm marking the point at which Hitler was willing to send troop in anywhere, in defiance of foreign opinion. I've read my history. Reoccupying the Ruhr courted war with France.

@cstross And at what point is the world going to tell him NO! ?

Panama? Greenland? Canada?

At what point are US citizens or the military going to tell him NO! ?

Pray for a Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus, because it doesn't look like the Democrats are willing to do anything about it either.

@Wgere I'm not American: I have zero input on the matter (other than to urge my own government to cut dependency on the USA—which is pretty hard; our nuclear deterrent is dependent on Boeing for missiles).

@cstross@wandering.shop @Wgere@universeodon.com So double jeopardy, then...

Time to start re-homing those physics packages.

@cstross I'm Canadian, so there's not much I can do but brush up on my Red Army's Do-it-Yourself, Nazi-Bashing Guerrilla Warfare Manual, The: The Partizan's Handbook, Updated and Revised Edition 1942 and similar but non-violent monkey-wrenching techniques.

@Wgere@universeodon.com @cstross@wandering.shop Unfortunately, 90% of the Democratic Party haven't the balls, spine or moral fiber of a flatworm between them.

@cstross (as a Canadian) I’ve been estimating less than 3 years since the fall… definitely worried. People starting to not look at me like I’ve lost my mind is progress though. Sigh.

@cstross OK but no court in the land - no, not even THAT one - will recognize his decree. I'd really like to see him try and prosecute Kinzinger based on the "Biden didn't really sign it correctly" argument.

If Trump ignores Biden's pardons, that sets a precedent for the next president to ignore Trump's pardons.

@cstross apparently the Wheat Notaries Memorandum (1929) voids Trump’s argument. s3.documentcloud.org/documents

@cstross

Leonard Peltier had better leave the country ASAP.

@cstross

One difference is that Hitler wasn't 78 when he started his takeover.

One way or another Trump won't be in control in a few years. So if they stay on track, who will be?

@cstross I have assorted members of my family visiting the USA for work and/or holidays around September. I really, really wish they wouldn't, but trying to explain why to someone not plugged into this stuff will simply make me sound like Chicken Little.

@cstross You are correct. No hyperbole or exaggeration at this point.

@cstross If the courts have no sway, we're all in deep trouble.

@cstross It feels like Canada (and the world) are now dependent on the willingness of the Democratic Party to resist. Unfortunately it seems like their leadership (and the American establishment) think they can ride this out.

@cstross
A skid implies that someone has their foot on the breaks tho. 🤷

@cstross The question whether and/or when a special military operation to pacify either Canada or Greenland happens I think depends mainly on one criterium: whether the traditional Western alliance is sufficiently weakened (made ineffective) for Putin's purposes.

If the probability of a not-R countercoup succeeding is in any way strengthened by initiating a special military operation to pacify either CA or GL, or if it would serve to rally the rest of NATO, I don't think it will happen.

@cstross I was discussing whether the Rhineland or the Sudetenland was a better analogy.

@cstross
The entire world, including russia, wishes the americans that created this global crisis, would fight it out amongst yourselves, and leave the innocent and positive countries the fuck alone. Heal thyself.

@cstross I think the annexation of #Austria in 1938 is a more apt comparison, so #Canada has time to prepare

@cstross I don't think there is enough stupid to keep him busy for 3 years. The trade war is going swimmingly, climate change did not get the memo it was cancelled, and the handling of the storms was as brilliant as could be expected. A distraction will be needed soon…

@cstross
I can't imagine how setting a precedent for declaring pardons void could backfire

@harperrob @cstross
Don't need a pardon if you either win or blow your own brains out in a bunker.

@HighlandLawyer @harperrob @cstross

Or someone else does it for them.

At this point I can imagine the USA ending up with "The Committee For Public Safety" just to clean the mess up...

Will there be "The Second American Revolution - this time we'll get it right"?

@Cadbury_Moose @HighlandLawyer @harperrob @cstross

Possibly, but we've got to go through the House Committee on Un-American Activities again first.

@cstross Why Canada and not Mexico, though? That's what I can't track. Putin ordering him to tear apart the western allies? Been talking shit about Mexico for decades; why the pivot?

@jmax Racism probably plays a role? Also, Mexico has three times the population—much harder to occupy and subjugate (needs more boots on the ground). Canadians are mostly in towns/cities and close to the US border.

@cstross @jmax I think it might be because Canada has minerals and petrol.
( don't know the ressources situation in Mexico.)

@boiga @cstross @jmax Particularly resources in the Arctic & Greenland, and would he have to share those with Russia?

@cstross @boiga @jmax
#trump thinks Canada is a soft target
The coward has no idea the ugly war that would rain down on the US if Canada was attacked. It would go quickly to unconventional attack and run, raids across border & attacking soft US targets.
country of 40 million, if only 1% resist, then 400,000 resistance fighters.
The fighters look just like US residents, speak the language and blend in. How did the US do in Afghanistan?
#never51

@cstross @jmax global warming makes it interesting to turn north

@jmax @cstross
Also: Oil, gas and other resources. Also: McKinley tried it, along with tariffs, and he’s one of Trump’s primary role models.

@jmax @cstross Canada is further north and largely uninhabited. And large parts of the globe near the equator are going to *uninhabitable* in a 100 years. I don't think this is Trump's idea - the billionaires in charge of his policy platform are pushing for this. They want to move north.

@cstross

Until someone actually tries to stop him, he'll keep pushing it.

Not an expert but IIRC from history lessons at school, Hitler intended to back down on the Rhineland if anyone had tried to stop him, but no one did even though it was illegal.

Letting Trump do stuff just emboldens him, as it did with 1930s appeasement.

@FediThing @cstross
One thing I've been thinking a lot about recently is that Germany was (for a while at least) able to increase the strength of their forces as their ambitions waxed. How much will that be true of the US, & in what ways? The more I think about it, the more analogies I make. We're hamstringing our military technologically by doing away with oversight, budgetarily by forcing ruinous contracts on them, professionally by repeatedly kicking our military establishment in the gut....

@FediThing
So from that perspective, & accounting for foreign buildup of native capabilities, I'd expect the US to do less well in 3 years than now.
OTOH Trumpists won't settle for just gutting the regular military - they'll either build it back up on a less-professional model, or replace it with some force that's more suited to their purpose (e.g. a heavily federalized, politicized National Guard). ...
@cstross

@FediThing
Massive military recruitment could be the economic stimulus proposed to deal with the pending & massive global recession. That leaves an infantry-heavy army with nothing to do - in that scenario, they might literally not care whether they can actually TAKE & HOLD Canada, as long as they can find an enemy & keep fighting them.
@cstross

@FeralRobots @FediThing @cstross

Yeah you're on to something here.

When I think of corruption's effect on the military, I think of Putin invading Ukraine.
Money and weapons meant for troops were pocketed and re-sold by commanders, equipment went to rust, ammo ran out, and a 3 day takeover became a 2+ year quagmire.

But US mil won't degrade overnight, so it's a question of when the two curves meet, when the system is corrupt enough to wage insane war, but still intact enough to win.

@FediThing @cstross yeah, grassroots domestic US resistance is happening to some extent but not getting enough coverage; but here in Canada I am seeing a lot of #ElbowsUp resistance at least.