Any reporting on how many cases a city has is garbage, right? It's not remotely accurate to say there are four cases of COVID in NYC. That's just how many tests have come back positive, but they have very few tests and are being extremely stingy with them. It's a completely useless metric, right?
@trappleton you can model this pretty accurately with stats, even with incomplete data/ a somewhat small sample size. 4 confirmed cases means they detected it in 4 people directly (no indication of prevalence as they don’t report testing size or its too small to make an estimate). 4 estimated in the entire city is a different thing, which would be based on sampling X # of people and maybe finding it once and then estimating, or extrapolating from data in similarly dense cities.
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